The Oct. 11 primary election for governor is still seven months off but it’s never too early for conducting polls to see the early seeding of candidates and an early poll has shown a surprisingly strong showing by Democratic State Rep. John Bel Edwards of Amite. MARCH 6 POLL
The poll, dated March 6, was conducted on March 5 by Triumph Campaigns. A survey of 1,655 participants, it was the first public poll completed since two of the gubernatorial candidates launched paid media buys or since several public debates were held in that race.
The poll also measured voter preferences for lieutenant governor, attorney general and commissioner of insurance.
With a margin or error of 2.4 percent, Edwards trailed U.S. Sen. David Vitter by only two percentage points, 35 percent to 33 percent. A further breakdown shows Vitter with 23 percent “definitely” favoring him and 12 percent as “probable.” Edwards had 16 percent “definite” and 17 percent “probable,” the poll shows.
Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne is running third with 15 percent (8 percent definite and 7 percent probable), while Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle trails with 7 percent (3 percent definite and 4 percent probable). The remaining 11 percent were undecided.
Breaking the race down by political party preference, 53 percent favored a Republican candidate and 47 percent preferred a Democrat. The percentages were nearly identical on the question of which party best represents respondents’ point of view with 54 percent saying Republican and 46 percent leaning toward Republican.
The poll also reflects that 69 percent of respondents do not feel the state is headed in the right direction while less a third, 31 percent, feel the state is on track.
To the question of approval of the job being done by Gov. Bobby Jindal, 63 percent disapproved, 27 percent approved and 10 percent were undecided. The 27 percent approval rating represents a new low approval rating for the state’s mostly absentee governor who was out of the state a full 45 percent of the time in 2014, according to the Baton Rouge Advocate.
Of the respondents polled 54 percent were female and 46 male; 48 percent were registered Democrats, 35 percent Republican and 17 percent independent. 69 percent were white, 27 percent black, 1 percent Hispanic and 3 percent “other.”
For lieutenant governor, Baton Rouge Mayor-President Kip Holden leads with 33 percent, followed by Billy Nungesser at 23 percent and John Young at 20 percent. State Sen. Elbert Guillory (R/D/R-Opelousas) had 4 percent.
Attorney General Buddy Caldwell appears to be in trouble early on, locked in a dead heat with Democrat Jacque Roy at 30 percent with Republican Jeff Landry at 20 percent and the remaining 20 percent undecided.
State Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon, with 45 percent, appears to have a solid lead for re-election over challenger Matt Parker at 13 percent. The remaining 41 percent were undecided. Those numbers could be skewed considerably should State Treasurer John Kennedy opt to run for attorney general but he is as yet unannounced.
Indeed, the numbers are expected to shift considerably in all races once the full-fledged media blitz is launched by the various candidates and as PAC money flows into the coffers of candidates favored by business, oil and other special interests.
These are the things that make me want to pound my head on my desk…repeatedly:
• 53 percent favored a Republican candidate and 47 percent preferred a Democrat
• which party best represents respondents’ point of view with 54 percent saying Republican and 46 percent leaning toward (?) Democratic.
• 69 percent of respondents do not feel the state is headed in the right direction while less a third, 31 percent, feel the state is on track.
If the state isn’t headed in the right direction, you aren’t going to get different results with more of the same being elected.
Arrrrghhh!!!
To add to Jindal’s woes, the conservative The American Spectator posted a devastating article this morning about Jindal’s laughable race for the WH. It’s not even 8 a.m. yet and it looks like another day of downward spiraling, another day of reality catching up to and trumping the delusions and the immorality of Jindal’s actions.
It’s bad enough that the conservative American Spectator published this piece about Jindal but when you see who wrote it, it’s a double whammy. Scott McKay, publisher of The Hayride blog, is one of Jindal’s most loyal apologists, so when he writes his political obituary….
Thanks. I did not know that. Makes it all the worse for the little dweeb.
Veritas do you have a link to this article?
Here is the link:
http://spectator.org/articles/62006/jindal%E2%80%A6-president
Thanks Tom!
I watched the Louisiana School Board Association Gubernatorial Forum at Shreveport and saw Edwards wildly cheered while there was icy silence for Vitter. That’s a strong base to come from for Edwards! With Holden doing his magic and John Bel coming on, I think that the polls may be very correct for now and even more promising in time to come. There will be the final effort to convert some of those Republicans, but the way Jindal is wearing thin, anything is possible! The problem with the money is that there will need to be two installments and what if Vitter just does not catch on as a candidate. He hasn’t accrued support since the first polls were made. In fact, he has receded a bit due to Angelle. . Can Vitter fall back on his Senate seat if all does not go well in Gubernatorial politics?
Yes, his Senate seat is not up for election and he does not have to resign from it to run for governor.
Thrilled to hear the LSBA is backing the one man in the race who has supported public education, unlike the other ALEC suck-up charter champions. Have been very disillusioned by my local school board’s lack of leadership in this area.
Has anyone considered that John Kennedy seems to be the only honest politician in the state. He seems to live in the real world and reports real numbers, not wishful thinking nor lies. I have heard he is not charismatic enough to win an election. The heck with charisma. I want honesty, integrity, and (gasp) competence!
PS – I’m amazed that voters would kick out a representative for kissing another man’s wife, but strongly support one who financially supports prostitutes in exchange for services…but – this IS Louisiana.
Kennedy is good at garnering headlines in fiscal matters when it pleases him. He is no stranger to subterfuge. Having made a secret agreement with Jindal, he qualified as a Democrat unopposed in 2007 and immediate3ly changed parties after qualifying closed. Certainly not a new trick, still certainly slimy.
As presiding officer of the State Bond Commission that same year he pretended to uphold the will of citizens and towns opposed to the Nord du lac development by setting aside a decision, then (in another under-the table deal) held for developers outside the public meeting venue.
I for one would gladly cross party lines and vote for Edwards. I am of the impression that it will take a democratic administration to begin the turnaround in Louisiana. Historically, over the last three decades, Louisiana residents have generally preferred a Republican in the White House and a Democrat in the Governor’s Mansion. Treen wasn’t bad, but was ineffectual. Roemer was a disaster. Foster’s shine started to dull in his second term. Jindal has been the biggest disaster of all, and may go down as the worst Governor in Louisiana history. Blanco had some unusual, perhaps even unprecedented, circumstances to deal with, but she did leave the state with a surplus. Right now, I wish her age and health would let her run again, but I don’t think that is going to happen. As for my party registration, I am about to go either “no party” or “independent”. Folks are getting way too caught up in ideologies and winning the next race instead of focusing on helping the voters who put them there. Some of the PACs have also gotten way out of hand and are attempting to turn state and federal governments into corporate aristocracies.
Reblogged this on The Daily Kingfish.